The Hidden Complexity of Energy Trading Rules

When people first look at energy trading, it often seems intuitive. For example, a common rule is to "always charge your battery from solar." On the surface, it makes sense: maximize renewable energy usage, minimize grid dependence, and save money. But like many seemingly simple rules in the energy market, this approach can lead to missed opportunities—or even backfire—when the nuances of the market are considered.

 
Why Intuitive Rules Can Fail

The energy market is dynamic and driven by countless variables: weather, demand, generation capacity, and real-time pricing. Here's a quick look at how intuition can mislead us:

Missing Midday Spikes: Yesterday, for example, there was a $10/kWh price spike at 11:50 AM. If you had been charging your battery from solar during this time, you would have locked up capacity that could have been discharged into the grid for significant profit.

Weather Surprises: A sudden rainstorm or cloud cover can drive prices up as solar generation drops across the grid. On such days, it might be more profitable to let your battery sit idle, export solar power at high prices, and reserve battery capacity for evening peak prices.

Saving Pennies, Losing Dollars: Some days, charging your battery from solar might save you a few cents—but at the cost of flexibility to respond to price spikes later in the day. Energy trading is a balancing act between saving and seizing opportunities.

Forecast Pitfalls: Market and weather forecasts, while useful, are not foolproof. Relying on them blindly can lead to suboptimal decisions, such as charging too early, discharging too late, or missing profitable windows.

The Art and Science of Crafting Rules

Building effective energy trading rules isn’t just about plugging in simple ideas. It’s a sophisticated process that requires deep technical knowledge, robust data analysis, and an understanding of how the market operates under different conditions. The margin for error is slim, and hindsight often makes it easy to criticize decisions without understanding the complexities involved.

A Community-Driven Approach

Despite these challenges, our platform thrives thanks to a vibrant community of technical users who are hacking away at innovative solutions. This includes projects like:

Improving Solar Forecasting: Users are leveraging machine learning and real-world data to refine solar generation predictions.

Analyzing Usage Patterns: Advanced algorithms analyze household energy usage to optimize when and how batteries charge or discharge.

Collaborating Through Open Source: Many of these ideas are funneled into our system through open-source repositories on GitHub (search for Powston). This creates a shared knowledge base that benefits everyone involved.

Welcoming Feedback, But with Realistic Expectations

We’re always open to feedback, even from users who don’t have the technical expertise to code or contribute directly to the system. Your ideas can spark new directions or help us identify blind spots. However, it’s important to understand that:

The Process is Rigorous: Every idea is carefully evaluated against real-world data and market dynamics. What seems simple on the surface may require significant effort to implement or might not align with market realities.

Not Every Idea Will Be Actioned: Our team prioritizes changes that offer the greatest benefit, and sometimes this means saying "no" to ideas—even good ones.

Outcomes May Differ from Expectations: Even when ideas are implemented, they might not behave in the exact way users envision. Energy trading is about optimizing for the bigger picture, and some trade-offs are inevitable.

Building Together

Energy trading is not simple, but that’s what makes it exciting. We’re proud to have a community that blends technical expertise, creativity, and a willingness to experiment. If you’re not technical, your feedback is still welcome—but keep in mind that it’s part of a broader conversation, not a guarantee of immediate action.

Together, we’re crafting smarter, more dynamic rules that adapt to the ever-changing energy market. Let’s keep pushing the boundaries of what’s possible.